2024年6月号-民主墙 北明简介 北明文章检索

 

 

美國高科技大資本為何開始支持川普?
 
 
北明
 
 
美國舊金山傳統深藍地區矽谷的企業家、作家和互聯網科技公司投資家大為•薩克斯6月6日晚九時在X發表文字,以“我為何支持川普”為標題,公佈了他轉而支持川普當選下屆(第四十七屆)美國總統的四個理由,並將此文訂選為他X賬戶的首頁文章以示重視。
 
這位矽谷人具有經濟與人文的雙棲色彩,他是Zenefits前首席执行官、 PayPal前首席运营官和Yammer首席执行官;他也是All In 播客的主持人之一,和批評美國高等教育中的政治正確性著作《多樣性神話•斯坦福大學多元文化和不寬容政治》“The Diversity Myth: Multiculturalism and the Politics of Intolerance at Stanford” 兩位作者之一。他還是本世紀兩部獲獎影片“謝謝你抽煙”( Thank You for Smoking,)和“達利蘭德”(Dalíland)的製片人。此外,他的身份中還有一道鮮為人知的色彩:他出生於南非,五歲隨父母移民美國,他認同父母對專制制度的批評,反對以監禁手段解決政治分歧。
 
人所周知,舊金山是美國民主黨大本營,矽谷則是高科精英自由派集中地。薩克斯的政治傾向略有不同,他的政治態度被描述為中間偏左的獨立立場,他多年來輪番捐助過兩黨競選人:2012年他捐助過共和黨總統提名人羅姆尼;2016年他則捐助了民主黨總統候選人希拉里;自2022年起他成為共和黨人的重要支持者,但2024年他也為從民主黨轉為獨立候選人的小羅伯特·F·肯尼迪、和川普的共和黨競選對手羅恩•德桑蒂斯舉辦了籌款活動。
他的跨界支持幾乎遍及每個競選者,但是自川普登上政治舞台,從2016年競選總統到2024年再度競選,他似乎從未支持甚至染指過川普在共和黨內外的任何競選活動。然而在5月30日川普被定罪為“重罪犯”後,薩克斯明確轉向支持川普,並在自己的舊金山灣區宅邸為川普舉辦了競選募捐餐會。
 
活動聲勢驚人,門票提前告罄,場子爆滿,共捐得美金1200萬,遠超500萬的最高預計額度。此前主流媒體預計,川普的到來將引發一場抗議活動。結果捐助活動當日,場外確有數百人湧現街頭,但他們並非前來抗議川普,而是歡迎他的到來,其人數和熱烈程度與屈指可數的抗議者形成鮮明對比。“福克斯新聞網”在6月7日對薩克斯的訪談中說,在接下來的數月間,薩克斯可能將再為川普募得三到四倍或更多於此的競選捐款。
 
另據報導,全美各地億萬富豪已經和正在轉向捐助川普,如黑石集團首席執行官史蒂夫·施瓦茨曼(Steve Schwarzman)宣布捐助川普,對沖基金經理約翰·鮑爾森(John Paulson)四月份在他弗羅里達的駐地為川普舉辦億萬富豪聚會捐款活動;社會資本公司創始人和首席執行官查馬斯·帕里哈皮蒂亞(Chamath Palihapitiya)也名列捐款籌組人之中。事實上,美國富豪階層的參與改變了川普捐助資金來源的結構,2016年川普獲得的“大額捐助”約佔其捐款所得的14%,而今年(2024)的“大額捐助”大幅度上升,已達68%。薩克斯在談到自己主持的捐款活動的熱烈情況時不禁表示:如果在自由派的舊金山都是這種情況,那可想而知的全國其他地方情況又將意味著什麼?
 
美國高科技大資本精英群體的政治態度的反轉,說明近年來美國嚴重裂變的政治光譜再度分化與重組。薩克斯的聲稱,他的理由基於對美國繁榮、安全和穩定的至關重要的問題的認知,這是腳踏實地的美國立場。薩克斯從經濟、外交、司法、移民四個方面談了他轉變的理由,他的闡述清晰、簡潔,輔之以事實和數據,訴諸於現實和常識,其論述不僅基本覆蓋了大多數支持川普的美國本土中產階級的主要看法,也代表美國高科技大資本界反轉的理由,其影響和意義值得分析。故將此文推薦給願意了解美國內政現實的朋友參考。
 
除了薩克斯此文表達的觀點,大陸境內熱愛自由民主的朋友在此文中可能會另有發現,這就是,文中提及或透露的某些信息是陌生的,甚至與他們所知正好相反,比如文中所暗示的烏俄戰爭局勢、所提供的美國的經濟狀況尤其是GDP增長數據等。這並不奇怪,即便人在美國本土,假如僅以西方主流媒體為唯一的信息來源,也不可能掌握美國和國際事態的真實情況,雖然在信息失真的情況下,人們往往能夠將已成之見自圓其說(知識分子尤其擅長此道),但是偏離事實的結論,除了使人在願景的虛構中浪費腎上腺素,終歸有害於民族或人類福祉。此外,即便對於同樣的事實,不同的立場和不同生存背景的人,也可以做出完全不同的解讀和評價。比如,對於西方國家政府管理和控制的社會福利制度或醫療保障制度,在東方被奴役的人們看來,是民主制度的優勢,是人民贏得的權益,而西方古典自由派人士則擔心並警惕這將導致政府權力過大而由此控制人們的生活,並認為這類慈善和福利事物,本該由各個社區和民間機構負責;又比如,由於選舉制度的生活化和四年一度的政府換屆,美國普通選民一般不會將下野的總統當作權勢人物對待,但是在沒有選舉制度的國家,民眾的權力意識反而相當強烈,以至於人們依然會把權威的光環套在西方解甲歸田的前領導人身上,並使用不同的標準評價其行止。凡此種種不同,並非信息的真實性可以消除,而且這種認知的差異,在各族群社會中幾乎是永恆的存在。我們唯有接受這種狀況,並對不同見解保持謙卑心態和清醒的理解。  
 
聲明一點,北明無意捲入川拜之爭,所關懷者,乃是美利堅共和國的正統價值、立國精神、自由之基礎、憲法的權威和這個擁有兩百多年(1776-1991)偉大歷史的國家人民的福祉。這個國家福祉,也曾是中國民族災難中的福祉,这是一百二十四年前的中國庚子國難、辛丑談判的歷史所證明的。至於象驢之爭,紅藍分野、姓甚名誰,唯有於此相關才獲得意義。嚴重如斯,即便挺拜挺川挺Jr肯尼迪,信而有徵,請勿將英語世界娛樂圈流行俗語之“粉”(絲,Fans)字冠之其姓、扣以在下,免得彰顯此習性的淺薄。
 
以下是大為·薩克斯《我為何支持川普》的中譯文,軟件自動翻譯、北明校正。英文原文及鏈接附後。
                                                  2024年6月9日於華盛頓郊外  
 
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我為何支持川普
Why I’m Backing President Trump
                                                                  
作者:大為•薩克斯:David Sacks
 
正如許多媒體報導的那樣,今晚我將在舊金山我的宅邸為唐納德J特朗普總統舉辦籌款活動。
 
在過去的幾年裡,我為總統候選人羅恩•德桑蒂斯Ron DeSantis、維韋克•拉馬斯瓦米  Vivek Ramaswamy和小羅伯特•肯尼迪Robert F. Kennedy Jr以及兩個主要政黨的幾位國會人物主持了活動。我捐了很多人,但我為之背書者很少。
 
但今天,我支持我們的第 45 任總統唐納德J特朗普成為我們的第 47 任總統。我的理由是基於我對美國繁榮、安全和穩定的至關重要的四個主要問題的認知——拜登政府在這些問題上嚴重偏離了軌道,而我相信川普總統可以在這些問題上帶領我們回歸正軌。

 
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大為·薩克斯David Sacks 2024年6月6日發表在X上的文章截圖。

 
1. 經濟
 
拜登總統接任後,美國經濟已從 2020 年第二季新冠疫情引發的衝擊中強勁復甦。但他選擇繼續用不必要的新冠刺激措施來刺激經濟——其中近2萬億美元的資金於2021年3月以黨派投票通過,隨後又有數萬億美元的資金用於「基礎設施」、綠色能源和「降低通脹」。
 
儘管前克林頓財政部長拉裡薩默斯(Larry Summers)早期警告稱這可能會導致通貨膨脹,但拜登還是這樣做了。當通貨膨脹到來時,拜登政府將其視為「暫時性的」。事實上,即使經歷了記憶中最快的利率緊縮週期,通膨仍然持續居高不下。
 
由於拜登的通貨膨脹,普通美國人在過去幾年中損失了大約五分之一的購買力。此外,任何需要抵押貸款、汽車貸款或信用卡債務的美國人都面臨更高的利息成本,這進一步限制了他們的購買力。
 
我們的聯邦政府也不例外,現在每年必須為 34 萬億美元的債務支付超過萬億美元的利息,這筆巨額債務每一百天就增加一萬億美元。這一軌跡是不可持續的,然而拜登的 2025 年預算卻要求更高的支出。
 
經濟成長已從 2023 年第四季的 3.4% 放緩至今年第一季的 1.3%。我們無法再承受四年的拜登經濟政策。
 
2. 外交政策/烏克蘭戰爭
 
川普總統卸任時,伊斯蘭國被擊敗,《亞伯拉罕協議》簽署,全球舞台上沒有爆發新的戰爭。三年半後,世界陷入火海。拜登總統做出的多項戰略選擇導致了這種情況。
 
拜登在上任第一年就不必要地疏遠了沙特,然後才意識到沙特是中東地區不可或缺的合作夥伴。他也主持了我們軍隊從阿富汗的混亂撤軍(正確的政策,糟糕的執行——校註:原文所有)。
 
但迄今為止他最大的失誤是在烏克蘭。其政府立即開始推動烏克蘭加入北約,儘管北約現有的成員國並未一致認為此舉是個好主意。當這一舉動不出所料地激怒了俄國人時,拜登政府便一而再、再而三地堅稱,對於烏克蘭來說「北約的大門是敞開的,並將繼續敞開」。在烏克蘭問題上,拜登說他沒有“接受任何人的紅線”,這是他在诱导俄罗斯。
 
入侵之後,在造成大量生命損失和破壞之前的最初幾週內,仍有機會停止戰爭。俄羅斯和烏克蘭談判代表在伊斯坦布爾簽署了一份協議草案,俄羅斯將撤退到入侵前的邊界,以換取烏克蘭的中立。但拜登政府拒絕了該協議以及米利( Milley)將軍在 2022 年 11 月尋求外交解決方案的建議。
 
隨著消耗戰的持續,烏克蘭人面臨不斷增加的人員傷亡和基礎設施損壞。儘管如此,拜登總統冒著引發第三次世界大戰的風險,仍不斷允許衝突升級。拜登最初抵制的每一次升級——艾布拉姆斯坦克、F-16、反坦克導彈ATACM、允許烏克蘭打擊俄羅斯境內目標——但最終他都默許了。現在只剩最後一步:北約地面部隊與俄羅斯直接作戰,而我們的歐洲盟友比如伊曼紐爾•馬克龍(Emmanuel Macron)已經為這種狀況做好準備了(校注:馬克隆關於派北約部隊參與烏克蘭戰爭的建議所導致的各界的谴责和不滿,這些谴责和不滿來自法國政界精英群體、德國總理舒爾茨,前北約秘書長拉斯穆森等,以及法國民眾。六月八日Azernews 以“歐洲議會選舉:馬克龍敗落”為標題,報導說,馬克隆任總統期間,其歐洲一體化主張引發的各階層民眾的不滿,可能導致反對勢力的崛起,這些反對勢力被稱為民粹主義或極右翼勢力,他們主張抑制歐盟超級大國的野心、加強本國的國家主權並收緊移民政策。)
    
因為拜登,我們的選擇僅限於將這場代理人戰爭(the proxy war)打到最後一個烏克蘭人,或者我們自己對陣作戰俄羅斯。川普總統表示,他希望烏克蘭停止死亡,並將尋求透過談判來結束戰爭。烏克蘭將無法再獲得我們在 2022 年 4 月說服他們達成的協議,但我們仍然可以拯救烏克蘭這個獨立國家,並避免世界大戰。

 
3. 邊境
 
作為一名美國移民,我當然相信美國通過歡迎來自其他國家尋求自由和機會的人才來強固自身的歷史。但這項承諾需要一個有序的程序,以便強調技能的合法移民和美國公民身份的原則。這是川普總統的首選政策。
 
拜登推行的是事實上的邊境開放政策。他上任第一天就廢除了川普總統限制非法移民的行政命令,並停止建造邊境牆,並將部分牆體當作廢鐵賣掉。這很快就導致非法越境人數激增,並導致我們南部邊境出現混亂和危險的局勢。
 
拜登總統(以及无能的卡馬拉哈裡斯Kamala Harris和惡毒的國土安全部部長亞歷杭德羅•馬約卡斯Alejandro Mayorkas)針對日益增長的擔憂,對美國公眾大放厥詞(by gaslighting),聲稱邊境沒有問題,儘管不斷有視頻顯示大批人衝過邊境。
 
当形势变得不容忽视或不可否认时,拜登声称他没有行政权力对此采取任何行动,并指责共和党人没有向他提交立法議案。但本周,針對这一问题的糟糕透顶的民调数字,拜登突然发现他畢竟拥有行政权力。他签署的这项命令,對於赶在大选之前减缓非法移民浪潮而言,是一次不温不火、为时已晚的努力。但拜登已经表明,他在这个问题上并不严肃。如果他赢得连任,边境开放政策将会恢复,数以千万计的非法移民将会涌入边境。

 
4. 以法律之名(Lawfare)
 
過去250年來,美國政治穩定的基石是,我們不接受為了贏得選舉而將政治對手投入監獄的企圖。然而,拜登從上任伊始就推動對他曾經和未來的對手進行選擇性的、前所未有的起訴。
 
梅裡克·加蘭(Merrick Garland,拜登政府的司法部長)對(2020年)1月6日的情況進行了長時間的研究,他認為起訴特朗普的途徑並不存在,即使是在國會的一個一邊倒的委員會向司法部遞交了一份極具偏見的轉介書(Referral)之後也是如此。隨後現的新聞報道描述了拜登對加蘭沉默的不滿。結果,是傑克·史密斯(Jack Smith,2022年被任命為司法部顧問,專職負責調查川普)成為聯邦一級的法官、阿爾文·布拉格(Alvin Bragg,2022年起人紐約曼哈頓地區檢察官,川普一案起訴人)和法尼-威利斯(Fani Willis,2021年任喬治亞富爾頓縣檢察官,川普一案起訴人)成為州一級的法官。他們都根據前所未見的新穎的法律理論提起訴訟,目的都是為了對付川普。在紐約州的案件中,布拉格將一項已經死亡(過期)的記賬輕罪,復活(恢復)為 34 項重罪,聲稱這是為第二項罪行服務的,但是他從未對第二項罪行下過定義,法官也從未堅持要求陪審團一致同意。
 
我年少時移民到這個國家,是因為我的父母反對他們故國的政治制度,那個政府試圖透過監禁其政敵來解決其政治分歧。我們曾經逃避的這種「以法律之名」如今卻在美國各地醜陋地上演,這是何等可悲的諷刺啊!
 
拜登總統始終堅稱,川普總統重返白宮將威脅民主。但正是他的政府勾結科技平台而審查互聯網、利用情報界掩蓋他兒子亨特的筆記本電腦,並以選擇性起訴反對他的政治對手。
 
結論:A/B 測試
 
選民們經歷了川普總統的四年和拜登總統的四年。在技術領域,我們稱之為 A/B 測試。在經濟政策、外交政策、邊境政策、法律公平等方面,川普表現較好。他是值得連任的總統。
 
(全文完)
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(檢索於2024年6月8日下午五點)
 
原文:
 
Why I’m Backing President Trump
By David Sacks
 
As many press accounts have reported, I’m hosting a fundraising event for President Donald J. Trump at my home in San Francisco this evening.
 
Over the last couple of years, I have hosted events for presidential candidates Ron DeSantis, Vivek Ramaswamy, and Robert F. Kennedy Jr., as well as several Congressional figures in both major parties. I give to many, but endorse few.
 
But today I am giving my endorsement to our 45th President, Donald J. Trump, to be our 47th President. My reasons rest on four main issues that I think are vital to American prosperity, security, and stability – issues where the Biden administration has veered badly off course and where I believe President Trump can lead us back.
 
1. The Economy
 
President Biden took over an economy that was already recovering strongly from the Covid-induced shock of Q2 2020. Demand had roared back, and employment had recovered. But he chose to keep priming the pump with unnecessary Covid stimulus – almost $2 trillion of it, passed on a straight party-line vote in March of 2021, with trillions more to follow for “infrastructure,” green energy, and “inflation reduction.”
 
Biden did this despite early warnings from former Clinton Treasury Secretary Larry Summers that it could lead to inflation. When the inflation came, the Biden administration dismissed it as “transitory.” In fact, inflation still remains persistently high even after the fastest interest-rate tightening cycle in memory.
 
As a result of Biden’s inflation, average Americans have lost roughly a fifth of their purchasing power over the last few years. Moreover, any American who needs a mortgage, car loan, or credit card debt faces much higher interest costs, which further constrain their purchasing power.
 
It’s no different for our federal government, which now must devote over a trillion dollars annually to interest on its $34 trillion debt, a massive sum that’s been growing by a trillion dollars every hundred days. This trajectory is unsustainable, yet Biden’s 2025 budget calls for even higher spending.
 
Growth has already slowed from 3.4 percent in the last quarter of 2023 to an anemic 1.3 percent in the first quarter of this year. We can’t afford another four years of Bidenomics.
 
2. Foreign Policy / Ukraine War
 
President Trump left office with ISIS defeated, the Abraham Accords signed, and no new wars raging on the global stage. Three and a half years later, the world is on fire. President Biden has made several strategic choices that have contributed to this situation.
 
In his first year in office, Biden unnecessarily alienated the Saudis before realizing that they are an indispensable partner in the Middle East. He also presided over a chaotic withdrawal of our troops from Afghanistan (right policy, abysmal execution).
 
But his biggest blunder by far has been in Ukraine. His administration immediately began pushing for Ukraine’s admission to NATO, despite no unanimity among the existing NATO members that such a move was a good idea. When this predictably antagonized the Russians, the Biden administration doubled down at every turn, insisting that “NATO’s door is open, and will remain open” with respect to Ukraine. Biden himself baited Russia when he said he didn’t “accept anybody’s red lines.”
 
After the invasion, there was still a chance to stop the war in its early weeks before much loss of life and destruction had occurred. Russian and Ukrainian negotiators had signed a draft agreement in Istanbul that would have seen Russia retreat to its pre-invasion borders in exchange for Ukrainian neutrality. But the Biden administration rejected that deal as well as General Milley’s advice to seek a diplomatic solution in November 2022.
 
As the war of attrition grinds on, the Ukrainians face ever-mounting casualties and infrastructure damage. Still, President Biden keeps allowing the conflict to escalate and risk World War III. Every escalation that Biden initially resisted – Abrams tanks, F-16’s, ATACMs, allowing Ukraine to hit targets in Russia – he has eventually acquiesced to. There is just one more escalation to go: NATO troops on the ground fighting Russia directly. And our European allies like Emmanuel Macron are already spoiling for exactly this scenario.
 
With Biden, our choices are limited to fighting the proxy war to the last Ukrainian, or fighting Russia ourselves. President Trump has said he wants the dying in Ukraine to stop, and that he will seek to end the war through a negotiated settlement. Ukraine will no longer be able to get the deal we talked them out of in April 2022, but we can still save Ukraine as an independent nation and avert world war.
 
3. The Border
 
As an immigrant to the United States myself, I certainly believe in America’s history of strengthening its ranks by welcoming talented people from other nations seeking freedom and opportunity. But that promise requires an orderly process of legal immigration that emphasizes skills and the principles of American citizenship. This was the preferred policy under President Trump.
 
What Biden ushered in was a de facto open border policy. On his first day in office, he repealed President Trump’s executive orders restricting illegal immigration and stopped construction of a border wall, selling off parts of it for scrap metal. This quickly resulted in a massive spike in illegal border crossings and a chaotic and dangerous situation on our southern border.
 
President Biden (along with the hapless Kamala Harris and the malevolent Homeland Security Chief Alejandro Mayorkas) responded to growing concerns by gaslighting the American public, saying there was no problem at the border despite constant videos of masses of people sprinting across it.
 
When the situation became too dire to ignore or deny, Biden claimed he didn’t have the executive authority to do anything about it and blamed Republicans for not sending him legislation. But this week, facing abysmal polling numbers on this issue, Biden suddenly discovered he has executive authority after all. The order he signed is a tepid, too little-too late effort to slow the tidal wave of illegal immigration in time for the election. But Biden has shown he is not serious on this issue. If he wins a second term, the open border policy will resume, and tens of millions more illegals will stream across the border.
 
4. Lawfare
 
A bedrock of the political stability we’ve enjoyed in America over the last 250 years is that we don’t accept attempts to jail political opponents in order to win an election. Yet Biden has pushed for selective and unprecedented prosecutions of his once and future opponent from the moment he assumed office.
 
Merrick Garland took a long look at the January 6 situation and didn’t see a path to prosecute Trump, even after a one-sided Congressional committee sent a highly-prejudiced referral to his Justice Department. Press stories then appeared describing Biden’s frustration with Garland’s reticence. The result was Jack Smith at the federal level and Alvin Bragg and Fani Willis at the state level. All have pursued cases based on novel legal theories heretofore unseen and designed to get Trump. In the NY case, Bragg resurrected a dead book-keeping misdemeanor into 34 felonies by claiming it was in the service of a second crime that he never defined and that the judge never insisted the jury unanimously agree on.
 
My immigration to this country as a young boy happened because my parents disagreed with the political system of their home country. That government sought to solve its political disagreements by imprisoning its political enemies. What a sad irony that the lawfare we escaped has now reared its ugly head in America of all places.
 
President Biden keeps insisting that a return of President Trump to the White House threatens democracy. But his administration is the one that has colluded with tech platforms to censor the Internet, used the intelligence community to cover up his son Hunter’s laptop, and pursued elective prosecutions against his political opponents.
 
Conclusion: The A/B Test
 
The voters have experienced four years of President Trump and four years of President Biden. In tech, we call this an A/B test. With respect to economic policy, foreign policy, border policy, and legal fairness, Trump performed better. He is the President who deserves a second term.
 
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作 者 :北明
出 处 :北京之春
整 理 :2024年6月11日15:38
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