中国民主化 （香港正在引发中国的政治变革）
秦晋
（2019年8月柏林第三届国际人文科学学术会议上论文节选）
中国有过民主，1912年到1928年之间。只是很短暂，也不完善。1911年的辛亥革命推翻了满清王朝，一个延续了两千多年的君主专制体制，建立了中华民国北洋政府。蒋介石的北伐推翻了北洋政府，但是把中国带入了威权专制。二战后中共在苏联的全力支持下、在美国杜鲁门行政当局的协助下赢得中国内战，1949年击败蒋介石国民党，建立起了中华人民共和国，一个极权政体，从此中国再无言论和结社自由。
当代中国民主运动的发端是1978年11月西单民主墙运动，在毛泽东逝世和文革结束后的两年左右。中共党高层的政治斗争引发了党内分裂，为底层民众提供了宣泄不满的政治机会。
然而，随着邓小平获得最高权力，中共故态复萌，关闭西单民主墙，继续维持专制。邓的两位倾向自由主义开明思想的助手胡耀邦和赵紫阳分别担任中共总书记，使得中国有利一个了长达十年期的宽松政治气氛，为中国年轻人和民众提供了一个可以思考并且相对自由地接受西方民主自由意识形态的机会。1986年末和1989年的两场学生运动的爆发，就是因为得益于从1979年到1989年这个10年期宽松政治气候和环境的直接结果。
1989年天安门屠杀扼杀了在中国已经蓬勃发展的民主运动，一切回到了原点并且倒退。
王炳章博士（麦吉尔大学）于1982年11月启动了“中国之春民主运动”，拉开了中国海外民主运动的帷幕，开始了北京西单民主墙运动在海外的延申。
1989年天安门屠城以后法国第一时间接纳流亡者，成功流亡法国的人士严家其、吾尔开希、万润南、刘宾雁、苏绍智、陈一咨等于9月22日-23日在法国巴黎成立了民主中国阵线（FDC），旨在结束中共的一党专制，这也成为他们的最终政治目标。
随着苏联东欧集团的解体，美国为首的西方希望将中共融入新的世界秩序，作为冷战的结束和“历史的终结”。西方此举为共产中国提供了振兴经济力量重新崛起的黄金机会。西方一厢情愿地相信麦当劳进入中国可以让中国实现民主，海外华人抛弃了中国民主运动，自20世纪90年代初以来，中国民主运动一直处于低迷不振之中。
一个被忽视但铁的事实，美国决意不支持新生的民主中国阵线。1993年华盛顿民联、民阵合并大会失败，成为海外民运的一场大灾难，整个中国海外民主运动遭遇前所未有的大分裂挫折，并迅速跌至低谷。中国当代海外民运自1990年代初开始的长期低迷是有其内外原因的，外部原因是世界领袖们尤其是当时的美国总统布什对北京是纵容的，也在这个时候，以美国为首的西方新绥靖思想潮流开始猖獗，帮助北京摆脱了国际孤立。内部两大原因则是资源和领袖问题。首先就是民运资源告罄，无以维持民运向前发展。其次则是民运没有具有政治魅力的领袖人物可以服众。
中国发生政治变革，必须具备以下条件和力量：
首先，1989年以后的中共最高领导人都没有政治意识和历史使命感，主动开启自上而下的政治改革，倡导言论自由、结社自由、开放政治选举。非但如此，中共历届领导人还希望借着中国经济发展综合国力提升以中共的专制主义政治模式去改变世界。
其次，民间必须有要求政治变革的呼声，而且与执政者上下呼应。如果执政者不愿意启动政治改革，民间需要有足够的政治意识形成力量迫使执政者进行政治改革。而现状是民间没有给中共执政者政治变革的需求和压力。
第三股力量可以改变中国现有政治状态的是西方国际社会。在过去三十年里，以美国为首的整个西方几乎没有要求中共发生政治变革议题上有过对话和要求。中国政治变化的参与者和相关者，毫无疑问，中共、中国民众、中共政治反对派都是参与者，西方则是相关者。但是反对派中只有民运是始终如一的参与者。
川普的出现让民运圈兴奋。美国总统川普不是一位思想深邃的政治领袖，他大胆、果断、守信，知道如何遏制能力平平的对手。他是自1945年以来对中共形成最大威慑和打击的一位美国总统。中美贸易战对北京有极大的打击力，完全有可能战场扩大并且转移到其他领域。美国副总统彭斯（2018）在哈德逊演讲所讲的，预示美国40年的中国政策的逆转，进而可能会成为改变美中关系的新冷战。这个事件也引发了世界上民主国家开始对中共警觉和防范。不可忽视的是，整个世界，尤其是领导世界的美国，对中国国民性、中共政权的邪恶以及对未来世界构成的危害，极其缺乏清晰正确的认识，无论是政界、学术界、文化界、媒界以及普通西方民众，都是如此。
未来中国三前景：前景一，中共继续统治，但是专制体制日趋没落而不会长久，然而中共最会坚持。前景二，中共统治集团发生冲突，统治日益艰难，被迫接受内外各种压力做出结构性改变，从而进一步威胁中共政权。习近平明确了，可以改就改，不可以改的坚决不改。前景三，马失前蹄的中共如同前苏联一夕之间崩溃，少数民族区域以及台湾乘势脱离大中国，李登辉的“七块论”在中国实现。本研究推测第三景可能性最高。
香港正在引发这个过程。香港持续的抗议活动可能会引发中国的政治变革，这真的让北京感到担忧。北京对香港人民的渴望让步意味着北京政权垮台的第一张多米诺骨牌，北京正在进行生死搏斗。现在，主要民主国家的态度和立场显然是观望。如果北京不得不以任何形式的力量压制香港抗议者来阻止抗议活动，西方民主国家将一致谴责和孤立北京。北京将进一步走投无路陷入绝境。
1923年英国政府提议“国际共管中国”。1924年郑孝胥提出了“三共论”，预言“大清亡于共和，共和亡于共产，共产亡于共管”。前兩句已经应验，第三句是否会应验？“三共论”背后是否隐含某种带规律性的逻辑？可以感知中国目前状态和趋势正是朝着这个方向。
结束语：在动荡的后共时代，大中华地区建立一个统一的所有少数民族原封不动不脱离的宪政民主的国家的机会将非常渺茫。这将是中共退出历史舞台以后中国人所面临的艰难而残酷的现实。中共曾经获得了为中国和中国人民选择最佳途径的黄金机会，但是，没有一任中共领导人有对国家民族担负责任的睿智。中国人应做最好的期盼，但同时要做好最坏的准备。
民主最终会再次来到中国，全世界可以亲眼目睹这个伟大而又壮丽的时刻，届时中共将不复存在。
完稿于2019年7月2日，8月29日柏林学术会议上宣讲
借柏林学术会议之机缘，8月27日，秦晋走访德国柏林墨卡托中国研究中心，就中国目前发展和不久未来的演变进行了深入的交流和探讨。
墨卡托中国研究中心创立与2013年，拥有30名以上的研究员和访问学者，主要研究当代中国，有如下几大领域的研究：中国的国际关系、中国的经济与科技、中国国内政治、中国社会与媒体。新近又开辟了两个新的研究：数码中国和中国对国际的挑战。
总体上研究广泛，且有中长期的研究项目，可谓欧洲之中国问题研究中心。该研究中心主张与中国之间进行Engagement或者在前者与Non-Engagement游走，而不似非此即彼的从过去的Engagement走向Containment。这个学术观点和立场不同于美国，希望独立于美中之间，进行具有欧洲视觉的观察和论述。
秦晋则向研究中心阐述了自身研究心得体会以及自1989年以后三十年中国政治反对力量对中国未来的走向的分析和观察。认为中共今天的强势得益于自老布什以来的美国为首西方的绥靖策略，一旦美国醒悟了，中共的日子就熬不下去了。自二战以后美国与中国之间的关系实际是美国与中共之间的关系，对此美国没有认识清楚，西方也没有认识清楚。川普的出现是一个异数，如若川普路线得以继续和延申，那么中共政权在川普任内倒塌崩溃是完全有可能的。但是后中共时期重建一个统一的民主宪政的中国，其几率极低。
China used to be a fresh-fledged, short-lived democracy far from perfection between 1912 and 1928.
The Revolution of 1911 overthrew the last imperial dynasty, which had been a system continuing for two thousand years in China, and this revolution established the Republic of China run mainly by warlords who controlled different regions.
The Chinese Communist Party won the Chinese Civil War immediately after WWII, with the full support of the Soviet Union and also unintentional assistance from the Truman administration in 1949 to set up the People’s Republic of China, a totalitarian system where people would enjoy no freedom in any way.
The modern Chinese democracy movement emerged after the death of Mao Zedong, and the advent of the Xidan Democracy Wall in November 1978 was accompanied by growing political pluralism and infighting of political power within the top leadership of the Chinese Communist Party, which offered the political opportunity for grass-roots people to express their grievances and demand freedom.
This was the inception of the modern Chinese democracy movement.
With the ascendance of Deng Xiaoping to power, he outlawed the Xidan Democracy Wall Movement and therefore quelled the first wave of democracy in China.
Deng Xiaoping was aided by his two liberal-minded Party chiefs Hu Yaobang and Zhao Ziyang, China enjoyed a decade long relaxed political period between 1979 and 1989.
This offered Chinese people the opportunity to think considerably freely to learn about the western ideologies of democracy and freedom.
The outbreaks of two pro-democracy movements in 1986 and 1989 were really the results of this 10-year political relaxation.
Deng Xiaoping and the hardliners then ordered a military crackdown on the Tiananmen Square democracy protests, which killed the democratic advancement that had flourished in China, and resulted in China retrogressing politically back to nil.
Chinese lost the political opportunity during 1989 Tiananmen Square Protests.
The US President George Bush’s choice could have decided who would win and who would lose in 1989, but unfortunately he chose to throw his support behind Deng Xiaoping.
Fleeing Tiananmen Square massacre exiles, set up the Federation for a Democratic China (FDC) in Paris, France in late September, 1989, vowing to end the one-party rule of the CCP in China as their ultimate political goal.
The sad thing was that George Bush refused to offer support to Chinese democracy movement with a wishful thinking that economic growth of China would lead to its political liberalization, West democracies followed suit.
The Chinese democracy movement was then off the sideline and ignored. That became the external factor of the continuous downturn of the modern Chinese democracy movement.
The continuous downturn of the modern Chinese democracy movement had also its internal factors, resources and leadership.
1. There were no resources to maintain this movement to keep prosperous and moving forward.
2. The unsurpassable problem is that the movement’s leaders are short of political charisma and leadership to attract masses to follow.
It is most crucial that the advent of political changes must exist for China to achieve democracy, for which the following conditions must be met:
First, the ruling Chinese Communist Party’s top leaders must have the sense of political consciousness and historical mission to actively initiate top-down political reforms to promote open political elections.
On the contrary, they are hoping to remold the whole world to the Chinese Communist Party’s authoritarian political model.
Secondly, the ordinary people must have the awareness to demand political change. The reality is that the majority of Chinese people display a weak voice or no voice and indifference to political reform.
The third factor that could push change in China's current political system is the Western democracies who so far have committed the strategic error to believe that the rapid economic development would assist China in moving toward political liberalization.
In the past three decades, the entire West has had little interest in pushing the CCP for political change.
The question is: Who wants China to democratize? Who does not want China to democratize? And who does not care about China to democratize?
It is only a minority of forward-thinking Chinese elites who expect democracy for China, not the general public. Most Chinese people do not even know what democracy is.
China’s current rulers obviously do not want China to be a democracy, which is not in their interest, as it would greatly damage their vested interests.
The US led West democracies behaved not care whether China is democracy or not.
Dr. Wang Bingzhang, founder of the overseas Chinese democracy movement once pointed out that the Western democracies, especially the US, did not care about China's democracy and did not even want China to democratize.
He speculated that once China has achieved democracy, China will emerge from the political yoke and will have a huge inexhaustible strength to leap into the position of the world's new superpower, to compete against the existing dominant superpower.
It cannot be ignored that the whole world, especially the United States leading the world, badly lacks a clear and correct understanding of true China, the evil of the Chinese Communist regime and its looming danger to the future of the world.
Since World War II onwards over seven decades, the United States has been basically wrong in its dealings with the Chinese Communist Party while other West democracies blindly follow suit.
The emergence of Trump was exciting for the Chinese pro-democracy activist circles as it was seen as a political opportunity.
Of all US Presidents, he poses the greatest deterrent and threat to the Chinese Communist Party since 1945.
It is likely that the US-China Trade War will expand and transfer to other domains.
The Hudson Institute speech of Vice President Pence heralded the tangible reversal of the 40-year US China policy and it may further change the US-China relationship toward a new cold war.
If the current US Administration keeps up this work and direction targeting the evil Beijing, the stronghold of totalitarianism will be destroyed and wiped out.
It can be foreseen and predicted, in the post-communist era, a united and constitutional democracy in China would be highly unlikely, instead, a falling apart of China would be more realistic.
What, in the future, China will be alike has three possible scenarios:
Scenario 1. The CCP will insist on continuing its rule.
Scenario 2. The Chinese Communist Party may be forced to do structural changes because of increasing ruling difficulties, which would trigger the downfall of the regime. But Xi Jinping has explicitly ruled this out.
Scenario 3. A blundering CCP collapses overnight like what happened to the former Soviet Union under heavy blows of externally full-out attacks and domestic unrest, I would speculate that this third scenario is the most likely.
Hong Kong is triggering this process.
The continuing protests in Hong Kong may incite political changes in China, which really worries Beijing.
Beijing’s concession over the aspiration of Hong Kong people would mean the first domino of the Beijing regime’s downfall, Beijing is on a battle for life or death.
The attitude and stance of major democracies is now obviously wait-and-see.
If Beijing had to suppress the Hong Kong protesters by whatever kind of force to stop the protests violently, the Western democracies would unanimously condemn and isolate Beijing.
Beijing would be further cornered to go bankrupt.
In 1923, the British Government proposed an "international condominium of China".
In 1924, a Chinese political prophet prophesied that the Republic of China would be destroyed by Communism, and Condominium would be the solution to the collapse of communist China.
His first prophesy came true in 1949 when the communist Chinese won the Chinese civil war to establish the People’s Republic of China. Will his second prophesy be fulfilled? It is perceivable that China is now moving in this direction.
To sum up, in the post CCP era evolving in this upheaval scenario, the chance would be very slim for China to rebuild a united and constitutional democracy with all ethnic minorities remaining inside its boundaries as before.
Democracy will arrive in China only when the Chinese Communist Party is no more but China will then be splitting apart into ethnic regions.
That would be the tough and harsh reality the Chinese people will face. Therefore the Chinese people should hope for the best but prepare for the worst.
It will be witnessed that the century long dream of Chinese will be realized, and the whole world will see this spectacular, a peaceful and advanced new world emerges when the CCP is no more.
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